tMF Special report on Twilight: Part 4 of a four-part series

What makes a movie worth waiting for? Is it the cast? The fact that you’re a big fan of the leading man? Or because you simply love the story? Perhaps you just enjoyed the teaser trailer(s) and really wanted to see the whole movie?

In the case of Twilight, if you’re big on the books, then there is every reason for you to want to see the movie.

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In Part 1, we talked about Stephenie Meyer. Next, we discussed the Twilight fandom and featured interviews with leading Twilighters. In Part 3, we put the spotlight on the upcoming movie and talked about the cast and crew. In this last installment, we'll talk about the future of the Twilight saga and its chances of becoming a successful film franchise. But in order to do that, we need to make a series of comparisons. Here’s what we said in our intro:

As JK Rowling's Harry Potter is about to end, enters Stephenie Meyer and her initial offering, Twilight - a movie that is already one of the most-anticipated of this year.

Why the comparison? The Harry Potter series is as big and as successful as it can get. Eragon, on the other hand, may boast a big fan base but the movie sucked big-time and talk of a ‘franchise’ now seem preposterous.

The question now is: can Twilight follow Harry Potter’s success or will it become the next big disappointment just like Eragon?

Regarding the issue of becoming a film franchise, another valid question is: will it suffer the same fate as Anne Rice’s The Vampire Chronicles, in which only two of the books were adapted to film, and only one of them (Interview with the Vampire) was really successful?

Harry’s magic

When JK Rowling's Harry Potter stories became the craze, it seemed as though kids had just discovered books, as they devoured every detail of the wizard’s adventures. Rowling’s seven fantasy novels achieved immense popularity, critical acclaim and commercial success worldwide. Aside from the movies, there were also video games and numerous items of Potter-themed merchandise that brought in additional revenue for the Harry Potter franchise.

According to Bloomberg.com, the seven-book series has sold more than 375 million copies and has been translated into more than 64 languages. The books’ immense success also made the author into one of the world’s richest women.

What makes Harry Potter such a big success? It’s a combination of great timing, mass appeal, positive reviews, shrewd and effective marketing and promotion campaigns, and numerous controversies. Each novel whetted people's appetite for the next installment, thus making sure the books stayed in the spotlight for months. The publisher, aware of the series' immense popularity,  anticipated huge profits on anything related to the series.

One of Hollywood’s top studios, Warner Bros., also had a big impact on Potter’s success when they decided to make the movies and spent quite generously in promoting them.

Reports the BBC:

As a single mother on benefits more than a decade ago, Rowling used to visit cafes not too far from the Balmoral while penning the first book, Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone.

Since then, the author, who lives in Edinburgh with her husband, Dr Neil Murray and their three children, has sold 325 million books and earned an estimated £520m.

Another factor not to be ignored or taken lightly is the book's huge fan base. 

In comparison, then: Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight Saga also has mass appeal and its share of positive (often rave) reviews. Both books were written by previously unknown, struggling authors, who are also moms.

Both authors targeted a specific readership (younger children for Potter and teens for Twilight), but both series were embraced by readers of all ages.

It's a well-known fact that the Harry Potter fan base is huge, but the Twilight fandom is something else again.

Twilight and 'State of Press': Rant or Rave!

Some people take pleasure in  bashing Twilight and may find the comparison with Harry Potter to be ‘unlikely’ or even ‘stupid’. Certain media outlets, most notably internet movie/entertainment sites, have hosted debates and heated discussions between Twilight fans and ‘non-believers’. The result is almost always the same. These sites get hit by huge amounts of traffic coming from the fans who--as we @tMF have come to say--‘obliterate’ their enemies…

The latest bashers appear to be regular readers of Slashfilm, as that site's owner himself admitted. You might enjoy the fun as these regular /film readers admire the latest teaser trailer, bestowing on it such magnificent terms as garbage, shit and terrible. [ I'm being sarcastic, you know... ]

As of today, though, Twilight seems to be gaining ground and getting more support from the media. Reports an article in Time:

Together the three Twilight books have sold more than 5.3 million copies in the U.S., 4 million in the past 12 months alone. They've spent a combined 143 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list; when Eclipse was released last August, it bumped the final Harry Potter book out of the top spot on some lists even though it came out only 2 1/2 weeks later.

In the same article, the author Lev Grossman writes:

But it is the rare vampire novel that isn't about sex on some level, and the Twilight books are no exception. What makes Meyer's books so distinctive is that they're about the erotics of abstinence. Their tension comes from prolonged, superhuman acts of self-restraint. There's a scene midway through Twilight in which, for the first time, Edward leans in close and sniffs the aroma of Bella's exposed neck. "Just because I'm resisting the wine doesn't mean I can't appreciate the bouquet," he says. "You have a very floral smell, like lavender ... or freesia." He barely touches her, but there's more sex in that one paragraph than in all the snogging in Harry Potter.

Harry Potter’s Box Office Records and Critical Acclaim

Can a film be truly successful if it fails at the box office? I don’t think so.

The return on the majority of the Harry Potter movies has exceeded their budgets by almost seven times. For instance, the first in the series, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, was reported to have a budget of $125 million and went on to gross almost $970 million worldwide.

Last year’s Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix worked around a budget of $150 million and reported almost identical box office returns of $940 million, a ‘mere’ 30 million less than the first movie.

The series also went on to receive multiple nominations and wins from various prestigious award-giving bodies both in the UK and the US, including the Oscars and BAFTA.

Reliable reports put Twilight’s budget at about $20-65 million. What makes it even more promising is Summit's (Twilight’s producers) announcement:

"We want to deliver studio-quality product at a reduced cost," Friedman (Rob Friedman is Summit’s top exec) said in an interview, noting that films will be budgeted in the $20 million-$60 million range. "But that doesn't mean we're going to shy away from spending on marketing."

While Summit Entertainment is a new player, its two top execs previously held some of the industry’s most important posts. Rob Friedman is a former Paramount vice-chairman while Summit’s president and co-chairman, Patrick Wachsberger, is well-regarded in international film distribution.

Eragon’s Fall

Personally, I find the comparison between Twilight and Eragon to be completely baseless. The adaptation of Eragon to the screen had nowhere near the quality and potential of Twilight’s much-anticipated film version.

I don’t know much about Stefen Fangmeier (Eragon’s director), aside from his work as a visual effects supervisor, but I am quite familiar with Twilight director Catherine Hardwicke’s movies. Her many awards and her reputation as a no-nonsense filmmaker says a lot, I think…

I don’t even have to dwell on the cast. Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson are two of today’s most exciting young actors with huge talents and even bigger fan bases.

UPDATES: Just in! Cocoa, one of The Twilight Lexicon's admins, was generous enough to give us more 'scoop' regarding the Eragon-Twilight connection. Apparently, our comparison of the two movies has more relevance than I first thought. Here it is:

So Eragon. As you know we were invited to the set two weeks ago. Also on set that day was Maggie. While we were speaking with producer Wyck Godfrey she asked him about working with adaptations. He said that he could give her “the good, the bad, and the ugly.” He then expounded on the ugly being Eragon. He remarked on the studio not caring about the book in the slightest, and how difficult that was, being a fan of the book himself. He said his only winning contribution to the film was the younger leading actor (though not as young as he would have liked him to have been) the initial cast included a 20-something lead. Wyck fought for a younger actor. He remarked “It’s a coming of age story. The lead should be young.” The studio shaved a little off the age, giving him a 17 year old lead. The movie, as we know, was a flop in the states. “The studio underestimated the fans,” Wyck said, “but they finally got what they wanted overseas where the book wasn’t known. It was a hit.” Wyck is thrilled to be working on an adaptation where they are staying true to the novel.

What was wrong with Eragon then? Almost everything. The cast - yeah, professional actors doing their best, but not enough. Ed Speelers. He’s the guy from Eragon. Yeah right. There is not one character that viewers could identify with. How about the special effects? Oh, there's really nothing special about it. If you stayed in the theatre after the first 30 minutes, you must love torturing yourself.

Anne Rice and Stephenie Meyer

When Anne Rice agreed to allow Geffen Pictures to produce and distribute the movie version of Interview with the Vampire, she raised hell when Tom Cruise was announced to have won the role of Lestat, her major Vampire character.

However, she changed her mind and went on to support Cruise and the movie when she saw the final cut, directed by Neil Jordan. With a $50 million budget, the movie went on to gross more than $200 million worldwide and was nominated for two Oscars (Best Art Direction-Set Decoration and Best Music, Original Score).

Meyer's reaction to issues related to the movie adaptation of her book was different from Rice's. She has been reported to have said she totally supports the lead cast and expects them to play their parts beautifully.

Will Twilight suffer the same fate as the Vampire Chronicles? That seems to be the most important question.

There are three important things: timing, cast and box office results.

Timing. Twilight's release is set for December, the time when the remaining movies vying for the Oscars are typically released. It’s also time for blockbusters to realize their potential and bring home the cash. Are these types of movies Twilight’s potential competitors? Maybe. But Twilight’s target market is one of the most loyal and definitely one of the largest in terms of audience share. Can the fans make a difference?

Cast. Robert Pattinson will surely be a major factor in Twilight’s success. If no one giggles and screams inside the theatre, then it’ll be goodbye to the franchise! Kristen Stewart also plays an important part as young teenage girls need to identify with her. Then there’s the matter of their on screen chemistry…

Box office results. Anything less than $100 million would be a big, big disappointment.

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What’s your take on Twilight? We welcome your comments and views!

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Comments (11)

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wow.
written by yiddidea, May 06, 2008

So, I had never heard of Twilight before becoming a tMF member but after all of these AWESOME articles I am so psyched for this film. I am interested in reading the books as well, but don't know if I want to before seeing the film. I usually enjoy a movie based on a book better if I read the book later.

In response to this article, my only worry for Twilight is the release date. December is usually when family themed Christmas movies come out or Oscar contenders. I think a late October, early November release would have been better, as a vampire film can only benefit from a Halloween opening.

factors for success or failure
written by jedmed, May 06, 2008

The December opening, I think, is an indication of Summit's confidence that Twilight has a following and that they will watch the movie instead of other films showing at the same time. It's a strategic move on their part, one that is seriously considered, as their top Execs have been the industry's players before operating Summit.

I think that the $100 million I originally estimated as the gauge for the movie's success will be achieved- domestically and via foreign sales. But it could well earn more than that.

I think one of the key is to have a movie that appeals to a wider audience, not too artsy or too complicated but true to the book.

I also enjoyed reading the book after watching the movie, but sometimes I find it more challenging to watch a movie after i have read the book- cases in point: The Kite Runner and Perfume.

Fantastic Article!!!
written by Kim, May 06, 2008

Excellent article…to date, the best I’ve read anywhere on the internet. Thank you for all the great info

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written by Barb, May 06, 2008

I think (as you said) that there are many other "factors" besides the huge fanbase behind the Twilight books. The cast, the director, the history itself, the great adaptation for the big screen made by Ms. Rosenberg. There's a big chance for Twilight to become a great blockbuster! December can't come fast enough. Can you imagine if we are like this with a teaser trailer and a couple of images... what will happen when December arrives!?!??!?
Amazing and enlightening article. I've learn A LOT about the movie bussines with you!!!! THANK YOU!!!!

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written by Cocoa, May 06, 2008

Excellent addition to the series Jed. One thought on the release date. Twilight the movie, like the books, does not carry with it the same stereo typical vampire connotations. There is no gore, sure there will be moments of peril. A few revised scenes to make you fear the "nomads". But the story is at its heart an epic love story. And this is just the first chapter in a hopefully very successful franchise.

It will also offer a welcome diversion from the seemingly bubble gum releases that happen around the holidays. Twilight will be rated no higher the a PG-13. And, from what I've seen, will offer movie goesers the same magic they felt that first time they walked into Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone.

cant wait till december!
written by iluvtwilight, May 06, 2008

Box office results. Anything less than $100 million would be a big, big disappointment.
kay done! im pretty shure it'll be higher than that =P

this is to the first comment "wow" ... u shuld definitely read it! i cant believe u found out abt Twilight frm tMF..this shows that twilight is being noticed frm articles like these =D
yay! im excited for u for wanting to read it, and u wont b disappointed =)
twilight is gaining more fans because of the movie! and now im more excited(dont noe if thats possible)...
thxs for the article! that was great

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written by Lady Noliana, May 06, 2008

Wonderful review, tMF. I, for one, can rest assured that Twilight will not be another Eragon. I remember distinctly finding out that they were making a movie for Eragon a year in advance. I planned it all - an expedition of our school's biggest Eragon fans to go see the movie, made T-shirts, counted down the days... While I did like the movie, it was mostly a defensive reaction. I didn't want to admit that the movie I'd been waiting for for so long was bad in any way. But it was. They ruined the book.

Here's what's interesting: for a while, Twilight was in serious danger of becoming another Eragon. This was before Summit got the rights, when MTV held them. Yes, MTV, who I pretty much idolize for giving us amazing updates. But... they actually wrote a script that... it's seriously astounding how bad it was. Meyer read it and turned them down flat. Immediately, Summit picked it up, and they were seriously dedicated to making a true adaptation. Just a few months later, we can see the results of their belief in this movie's potential.

I know I'LL be screaming.

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written by yiddidea, May 07, 2008

Hey "iluvtwilight" - yep, I seriously had not heard about Twilight before this site. One reason movie blogs are awesome is you can be introduced to movies you may have ignored before. I am really looking forward to reading the books!

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written by LiveandLove, May 13, 2008

Excellent Article.
Welcome back by the way!!!

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written by MarcusVolturi, May 16, 2008

It's really a mistake to think that Twilight is for teen girls, and an even bigger mistake to assume that it's for females only. There's enough Cool Factor in the books for anyone, especially guys; from the hot cars, the cliff-diving, the oversized buddies of the werewolf pack, the immortal hitmen and trackers, the vampire lords that function as a worldwide law enforcement operation, the battle scenes and their fiery aftermath. The only thing missing are the guns, which never leave Chief Swan's holster on the hook by the kitchen. And what guy with blood flowing through his veins has really never felt the ecstacy and pain of love anyway? From Edward's unconditional love for Bella, to Jacob's heartwrenching anguish that the girl he wants belongs to someone else? Or Mike's realization that he won't ever be more than a friend to that hot girl of his dreams? That's got to ring a bell, as much as we hate to admit it. And there's that macho love that the Cullen guys and the wolf pack have for each other. For those of us with any shred of emotions at all and aren't afraid to admit that they exist, the fact that the Twilight saga should have universal appeal really doesn't surprise us one bit. I also have to add that the books, by any literary standard, are just So Darn Well Written, period. That's the argument right there.

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written by Jan, May 16, 2008

Like yiddidea, I too hadn't heard of Twilight before (the book or the movie), but it's thanks to my involvement with our site here that I got on the Twilight train. It's also in thanks to our great Books to Movie feature.

This was a great indepth look at Twilight. I have no doubt that judging on the buzz and fanbase, that the movie will do very very well financially.

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