Described by a number of movie bloggers as one of the most debated issues today - - Is Twilight destined to become a Box Office success?

tMF is joining the fray and while a number of movie sites and blogs have already arrived at their own conclusions, we would like to add our own.

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We've learned long ago to be skeptical of Comic-Con sensations. The place is the ultimate bubble, and just because a few light sabers swing in your direction doesn't mean the money will follow. But just because something has a hardcore fan base in San Diego doesn't mean it won't be a huge moneymaker either (just ask Robert Downey Jr.'s accountant).

So which rule should we follow for "Twilight," that box-office enigma that could turn into this year's "Harry Potter" -- or another example of the Comic-Con illusion?

I'm quoting the original article relative to the quote above:

But will the buzz translate into blockbuster boxoffice?

The question has become one of the industry's most debated. Its answer will offer a referendum not just on Summit's ability to shepherd a studio-style hit but also on whether franchises can be created on modest budgets at a time when production and distribution costs are skyrocketing and the YouTube generation is harder to reach than ever.

Summit is careful not to overplay expectations for the film. Yet the hype ramped up after the company moved swiftly to snag the Nov. 21 pre-Thanksgiving release date when "Harry Potter" was pushed to 2009. Now, some boxoffice analysts are predicting the $37 million-budgeted film (according to Summit; some peg its cost at $40 million-$50 million) could earn back close to its budget during its opening weekend alone.

Important Issues Raised: I've read both articles carefully and I want to come up with some of the issues raised:

1. Twilight is either a Comic-Con illusion or a box office enigma in the league with Harry Potter;

2. Can a small player like Summit Entertainment produce a studio-style hit? Can a movie franchise be created on modest budgets? [ also see summary below ]

3. Steven Zeitchik listed down some of his analysis: What we found is that for every argument arguing one side of the success of the November 21 release, something bites back on the other side. A few of them:

• The books are bestsellers. But are they mega-bestsellers, to the point where readers alone can drive ticket sales, like "The Da Vinci Code" did?;
• Boys won't go because there's not enough action. But mothers might -- see under: Summit's marketing to an online contingent called Twilight Moms (a distant cousin to hockey moms);
• It's hard for a startup studio like Summit to spend enough to push the box office to tentpole levels. But with a budget in the $40-50 million range, it doesn't exactly need to outearn "The Dark Knight" to become profitable;
• There's precedent for teen-vampire stories to cross over -- just look at "Buffy." But the TV series built an audience over years. "Twilight" will have to pull it off over a couple weekends.

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tMF's take on the issues: A lot has been said, assumptions, perceptions and personal views, but let's list down some of the facts and opinions as well:

Issue #1: Twilight is either a Comic-Con illusion or a box office enigma in the league with Harry Potter.

I find this issue to be relatively academic. The most important issue here is whether Twilight fans will support the movie or not. The report at the convention is that fans numbering in the hundreds came out to greet the cast and crew of the movie.Says a fan:

Even my 62 year old father wants to see Twilight. Having said that, why does it seem that the guys commenting make it sound like they'd rather have their nails ripped off than see this movie? You would think that if you are a heterosexual man, you'd want to be where the ladies are, or at least figure out what they are into. Maybe they should go see this movie, or read the book, and take notes. Not the stalking bits, that's creepy, but how much of a gentleman Edward is. But then again, I'm not a guy, so...

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Issue#2: Can a small player like Summit Entertainment produce a studio-style hit? Can a movie franchise be created on modest budgets?

tMF already discussed this issue way way back. Here's what we have to say:

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California-based Summit Entertainment will serve as Twilight’s distributor. The new company boasts two top movie executives who are well known and respected in the industry. Summit’s press release reports that Robert Friedman and Patrick Wachsberger will serve as co-chairs of the company. Friedman will serve as CEO of Summit Entertainment. Wachsberger will be president of Summit Entertainment and CEO of powerhouse sales arm Summit Intl.

Summit “….have closed a financing deal led by Merrill Lynch, along with a consortium of investors, that results in the creation of a new worldwide theatrical motion picture production and distribution studio — Summit Entertainment, LLC. Under the terms of the transaction, Summit Entertainment LLC will have access to in excess of $1 billion for development, production, acquisition, marketing and distribution of filmed entertainment across all media.”

Friedman used to be vice-chairman and chief operating officer of Paramount Pictures, one of Hollywood’s big studios.

"We want to deliver studio-quality product at a reduced cost," Friedman said in an interview, noting that films will be budgeted in the $20 million-$60 million range. "But that doesn't mean we're going to shy away from spending on marketing."

Summit’s Strategy: Target a specific market - young teens, with emphasis on story/subject matter instead of stars. Says The Hollywood Reporter:

A second big bet, Catherine Hardwicke's teen-vampire drama Twilight, also has few top names but looks to capture an audience familiar with the literary source material.

tMF’s take: A bona fide box office hit! With an infusion of fresh funds, I have to say that Twilight may not have problems when it comes to promoting the movie. There are already reports that Summit is really concentrating its efforts towards the completion of the movie.

While the promotional and ad strategy for Twilight will be very important , especially for those who have not read the book and are outside the so-called Twilight fandom, there is one big advantage the movie already has: the huge Twilight fan base. While this is not a 100% certainty, there is no doubt regarding the fans’ dedication to Meyer’s book. This has been proven time and again and once the movie is released in December, we’ll find out just how committed they really are.

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Issue #3a: The books are bestsellers. But are they mega-bestsellers, to the point where readers alone can drive ticket sales, like "The Da Vinci Code" did?;

The DaVinci Code is reported to have sold 57 million, while the latest Harry Potter book (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows) sold 44 million.

I tried to find a figure for Twilight but up to the publication of this article, I could not find one. Here's the closest I could find so far - A post at the Twilight Lexicon discussing the books.

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Issue#3b: Boys won't go because there's not enough action. But mothers might -- see under: Summit's marketing to an online contingent called Twilight Moms (a distant cousin to hockey moms);

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Tell that to the Twilight Guy! I don't think the author is aware that there are hordes of male fans of Twilight.

Might I add MTV blogger, Larry Carroll? How about the creators of a number of Twilight sites, including the guys at Twilight Latin America and their male readers.

Here's an interesting comment from a fan:

I think that they're underestimating the interest of boys/men have for this film. I know that my 55-year-old dad loved the series and he's really looking forward to seeing the film. My 12-year-old son has wanted to see the movie ever since he saw the first theatrical trailer that was released when we saw "Hancock" this Spring. There are also a lot of closet fans that won't willing admit that they're excited about it.

Mothers are definitely going to watch, as well as, working Moms and there are lots of them- Doctors, Nurses, Insurance brokers, Ballet dance instructors, you name it. Just visit the TwilightMom forum and just by gauging the board activities, you'll know their numbers. Says another fan:

I plan on sitting my butt in the theater all day opening day. I'm actually flying out to Texas so my sister and I can go together. I've already told everyone that I will not be available November 21.

Let's hear it from Lisa Hansen, the founder and publisher of TwilightMoms about the bad press:

Critics will always be out there. It's impossible to make everyone happy. When Star Wars first came out in the 70s, critics gave IT bad reviews. That being said, I think, in general, critics are underestimating the impact of this book and the intensity of the fans. I also think it gets a bad rap from its categorizing as a YA or "teen" book. This book has tied together grandmothers, mothers, daughters, sisters, nieces, aunts, husbands & wives, fathers, brothers, cousins and so on.

The fans' reactions I quoted here are not an assurance that there are many others similar to the comments made already. However, being a male Twilight fan myself, I know for a fact there are a lot of men interested in watching this movie.

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Issue #3d: There's precedent for teen-vampire stories to cross over.

The argument that Twilight needs to build an audience just like Buffy is quite subjective. First of all, we need to assess the depth of the author's research when it comes to Twilight and its audience.

Most movie sites and blogs up to this time are still in the opinion that only teenage girls and mostly young females are the captive audience of the book and presumably the movie. However, if you care enough to dig deeper, you'll find out that all sort of audience are captured by the Twilight fever.

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tMF Analysis: In Summary, I think the analysis at The Hollywood Reporter failed to include one important factor - the fans. tMF began publishing articles about Twilight since late last year. I know the kind of passion and dedication of most Twilight fans. I see no reason why they would be considered fickle and most would be turned off by the differences between the book and the movie adaptation. That is also quite subjective. If you want to make a strong argument, you need to lay down facts and statistics.

At present, the kind of statistics we have are the number of Twilight fansites already capturing their share of the audience - both the fans and those who are just about to discover the book and the movie.

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A Final Word from a Twilight Fan: Here's an interesting comment posted at Twilighters Anonymous-

I Think that, obviously, book fans will want to see the movie to see whether it’s a good adaptation or not. Unless it’s a complete failure (which I hope it isn’t!), fans will want to judge it by themselves. I personally think that the movie won’t be as good as the book, and I’m speaking from past experiences, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be an overall bad adaptation and therefore be bad entertainment.

Now, from a purely economic point a view, I don’t think movie studios can count solely on the money made by Twilight fan tickets. I think that since vampire stories are quite a popular theme, Twilight should attract quite a few non-book fans. Wether they are just people looking for an original story, alternative romance fans (or just regular romance fans for that matter), fantasy/dark fantasy lovers, etc…
On the whole, if Twilight is deemed a movie worth seeing, people will go see it, period.

Just a note on something the article mentioned: I agree with the fact that a book being a bestseller doesn’t necessarily mean the movie adaptation will be a blockbuster. Look at Eragon, for instance. I personally think it was a disaster, but the books are hugely popular. The result of this being that a lot of fans must have been immensely disappointed.

Dig Deeper: In case you are interested in exploring the Twilight fandom, tMF has a comprehensive article that listed down most of the Twilight fansites and a series of interviews with prominent Twilight fans and owners of fansites. One thing you'll learn from the articles and interviews, the fans are not young screaming girls...

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The Final Word: But the question now is, will the popularity of these fansites translate into Box office gold? It's actually a similar question to whether fans of the books will watch the movie...

I am quite sure you'll be reading a number of comments from Twilight fans themselves...

I would like to acknowledge the article posted at Twilighters Anonymous for giving me the inspiration to write this article.

Up next! I have been asked why tMF is not launching a comprehensive guide to Twilight... Yes! We hear you so stay tuned for that in a few days.

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What's on your mind? Let us know what you think of this article. Is Twilight going to be a box office success? Tell us why you think it will be a success or why it will be a failure.

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Comments (65)

it's all about hype!

i'd have to say yes. twilight will do very well at the box office, if for no other reason than all the hype and curiosity surrounding it. (the only reason i got turned onto the books was b/c of constant talk of Twilight everywhere i turned. now i'm a huge fan! everyone i know hears about it.) the word of mouth itself is going to drive ticket sales, at least opening weekend(s)...[

Ro , October 06, 2008 | url

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I agree with Ro. A lot of people who have never heard of Twilight will most likely see it b/c of all the hype that is surrounding it. And of course the book-fan base and the fan-bases of the actors who are in it. That right there is enough people to make it a box office success.

Lydia , October 06, 2008 | url

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My prediction: Twilight may do well its first weekend, but after that, it will be easily forgotten. Let's not forget the other films being released around the same time, namely James Bond the weekend before.

StephanieJ , October 06, 2008

Fall 08 Hit

This movie will definitely be a smash at the box office - just not overwhelmingly so. It's fan base is solid, and seemingly everywhere you turn. These people (and I'm not limiting the label to teenage girls) are anxious, dedicated and loyal. And you can bet they'll see it opening weekend. Overall, I see this movie delivering better figures at the box office than the new James Bond flick. Great post, tMF.

Ella , October 06, 2008

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First of all, thank you tmf for a good article. As a twilight fan, and I'm not a teenager either, I can say that Twilight will have big numbers for opening night. And since the fans are obsessive, they will go see it over and over again. Seeing the first two trailers, I can see that if anything else, Catherine Hardwicke has really captured the forbidden romance of Edward & Bella - which is what fans are really looking forward to. So, in the end, the gross numbers will surprise many.

anne a. , October 06, 2008

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I believe that the movie will do very well the initial week-end. And how it does "long term" will be dependent on how well Rob portrays and brings to "life" Edward. (I have no doubt that he will do wonderful) I'm afraid though that no matter how well it does; there will be those out there that will say that it should have done better.

patti , October 06, 2008

A Hit

I think it will be a hit because as the days progress more and more people are becoming more aware of the movie and the novel. Even here in the Philippines love for Twilight is not exclusive to teenage girls...I know of a lot of mature working women who are in love with the book and of the movie as well.

spuddevaughn , October 06, 2008

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Here's my take. The movie's gonna make money- but not Harry Potter money. Some will argue if it doesn't make HP money, it's a failure. But of course that's not true- because they worked on a smaller budget scale, they don't need to make Oprah style money as a result. Just a big enough number to make a sequel possible. And I think they will. And it's opening on Thanksgiving weekend, ya'll....it's going to be a family style movie pick that will be driven by very insistent teenagers, and Gramps and Dad and Mom and baby bro will all be dragged along to it, when on any other weekend, they wouldn't be going! I'm just sayin...it's gonna do well, FOR TWILIGHT. No need to compare it to HP.

nina , October 07, 2008

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ps---and don't forget. Twilight fans? Are planning on seeing it MULTIPLE times. With different groups they coerce to watch the movie with.

We twilight fans? Are like MOrmon missionaries. We are disciples and we will try to convert as many as possible during the movie's box office run- if only to have another excuse to watch Edward Cullen on the big screen.

nina , October 07, 2008

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tMF,

First off, great entry, I'd have to say you've covered most if not all the bases.

Speaking as a slightly more than casual MALE fan of the series, I AM looking forward to the movie and expect it to be a success by any definition of the term. Here's why:

Strictly from a critical standpoint, there's the hope that Catherine Hardwicke's proven (if a little controversial) ability to reach out to the film's target audience coupled with Stephenie Meyer's involvement will work perfectly to convey what I think is the book's main draw: Getting in the head of the average american teen with average issues that suddenly get just a tad exciting. I am sure the tandem will work towards (and if those leaked scripts floating around the intarwebs are any indication) a film as faithful to the book as 2 hours and some odd minutes can interpret. Oh I'm sure there'll be some changes made for the sake of flow and "watchability", but the fans won't mind much, seeing as Meyer obviously rubberstamped them. Now as for the recipe, well, it's a forbidden love story with a fantasy/suspense twist, an obviously fan approved cast, and it even promises a little bit of action. Need I make the obvious Romeo and Juliet to Titanic success connections?

Will it draw the male demographic? Well, hmm, R&J was written by a man (Shakes!) and Titanic? Penned by the same guy who wrote The Terminator.
I'll say this much, all those screaming girls I saw mobbing the book release at Borders are going to need dates, and those dates are going to need some moral support from their peers. Oh they'll be in there (whether kicking and screaming or wrapped around their girlfriends), and count for the majority of those boys to take a hint from Edward and spring for their dates too, I'm putting my dollar on that. Besides, if I was a smart guy I'd realize the action is IN the theater, if not exactly on the screen.

Also, in pegging the success of a book-based movie, there are always those high budget ones the fanboys are sure to watch whether or not the writer is supportive of the movie based on his work. But an underdog, author supported, and "humble"(relatively low budget) movie that is based on a wildly successful book with a vocal and almost rabid fanbase, which by itself doubles as a chickflick AND a date movie? well, the only question about this being a hit is which record it will break.

Lastly, much as I hate to tie this movie to what is going on around us right now, the state of the nation is frankly quite depressing. I believe we all could use a couple of hours away from this reality, immersed in a little town called Forks, watching a forbidden love story unfold.

Expect that I'm not the only one who feels that way.

Rock on tMF.

Wolfsbane , October 07, 2008 | url

Wolfsbane, you rock!

Hello and welcome to tMF! That is one of the most insightful and reference-filled commentaries I have read at tMF so far! Thanks for the effort to truly explain the Twilight phenomenon from a male standpoint.

While Catherine Hardwicke has yet to produce a box office hit, as we have already reported. I agree that with Stephenie Meyer's involvement, the true essence of the book will be instilled in the movie adaptation. Hardwicke is also well-regarded in the indusry and her forte is directing young actors.

What sort of cool would guys need if their girlfriends are watching the movie and consider this a big event - they have no choice but to join! While being 'cool' is not the absolute end in watching Twilight,I agree with your assssment that men and boys ought to watch the movie for the simple reason that someone is going toask them,perhaps force them to watch it.

And yes, we all need a few hours to get away from all these Politics- the mudslinging and negative press is indeed depressing.

Jed , October 07, 2008

LOL!

Yo Jed, you and me, PINGPONG. *throws down the gauntlet*

Glad to be here and wow that comment was approved fast! Lets just hope we get some more viewpoints, it'll get interesting. =)

Wolfsbane , October 07, 2008 | url

Outside US Movie goers

I think that the fact that europe is irrated that Twilight isn't coming here at the same time as there (US), that we can see Twilight gather tons of viewers out side US too... So why not within too.

Little Miss Innocent , October 07, 2008 | url

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Definitely going to be a hit, but not like Harry Potter.

Monica A , October 07, 2008

My thoughts...in novel format

First of all, Twilight can in NO WAY be compared to Harry Potter! The budget, the target audience, the numbers...all very different.

I want to address the readers of the book(s) next. Without a doubt, every person who read and enjoyed will be seeing this film. That being said, every person who read and loved this book will see it more than once. That being said, every guy who has managed to secure himself a girl, is dying to know what all the hype is about...why do they have to hear about this Edward and Pattinson all the time? So they'll puff out their chests, and hold their girls hand and stroll into those theatres ready to take Edward on head first. Next you have the 'mothers' or mature woman demographic, who will pay the babysitter and grab her husband for a 'date-night' to see the book they love come to life. Yes...it's true...not only teenage girls are in love with this book.

Then you have your above-average Rob Pattinson fans who will see anything and everything this actor does. And with good reason. No matter the role, no matter the hype, he guarantees a hit performance to remember. Even those who aren't Twilight fans will see this film because of him, and they will see it more than once.

Ah...this brings me to the repeat offenders. Those ladies, younger and older - who got their significant others to the theatres opening weekend, will want to see the film again. Some of their men will tag along again, but most may not. So they'll grab their girlfriends who may or may not have already seen it, and it's a girl's night out! I know for a fact that Rob Pattinson fans are already planning to see it several time just in opening weekend...one Pattinson fan has saved over $100 in movie gift cards all saved for Twilight and Rob. I too will be seeing it several times...opening weekend and the weekends after. Oh and my fiance already said how he actually 'wanted' to see this film, and may even want to go more than the one time with me.

Someone mentioned Quantum of Solace...ah yes, the film that is directed to the male demographic who aren't always known to be repeat offenders. I'll admit, I'll go see and I'll enjoy Quantum of Solace, though they won't be able to touch Casino Royale. But will I see it more than once? Maybe if I buy the DVD....but not at theatres. It's not necessarily, 'that type' of movie.

Lastly, you will also have those who are looking for any reason to come down on the film. The 'nay-sayers' and the 'negative-nellies' who love to hate...well...everything! They will see it just to come down on it later in their blogs and forums. They'll also be some of those same 'nay-sayers' who will let curiosity get the better of them, and they will break down and see it, never admitting to the defeat however.

All in all, we have a mega-hit on our hands. I find the term, 'blockbuster' a little hard to swallow, only because what constitutes it being called a 'blockbuster?' Specific box-office numbers? Or what those numbers are in comparison to the films' budget? I think it should be the latter, but everyone has their own opinion of what a 'blockbuster' is.

My opinion now? By the time Twilight leaves theatres, weeks and weeks after opening weekend, I say it's close or over the $100 million mark. Big shoes to fill? Maybe, but that's merely my opinion...

Excellent article tMF!!

Shannon McShane , October 07, 2008 | url

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I too, will be going to see Twilight many times. My mom will be my partner in crime and my dad wants to see it too. I think those who have dismissed Twilight will be surpised once the numbers come in from the weekend. Then that will spark more interest in the movie from those who were not sure about it. Hopefully, New Moon will be officially annouced soon after we see the success of Twilight at the box office. I'm counting down the days!!!

Jenbarn76 , October 07, 2008

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Great job Jed! You covered all the bases. There is every indication that Twilight is going to be huge and deservedly so. Have you ever seen or heard of so much hype and excitment over just a trailer?!? I haven't.

For the fans that may be worried that the movie isn't going to deliver, Stephenie Meyer has said herself how thrilled she is with what she has seen of it. If that's not convincing, I'm not sure what is.

This movie is a huge event for my family. My parents, my kids and my sister are all stoked about it. We literally talk about it on a daily basis.

Let me just add that you made my day by quoting me not once, but twice, in this article.

Kuddos!

fergie , October 07, 2008

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Well thought out opinions! A big opening weekend is a given, I think, given all the build up. After that, I think it will depend on Hardwicke's ability to capture the feeling of the book, given the deviations natural to the jump from page to screen. Hardcore fans of the books may be put off by any deviation, but I think the majority of readers/viewers will be looking to see if the essence is right.

Speaking as an older reader that was pushed, pulled, and prodded into reading the books by my daughter (as well as intrigued by Rob Pattinson's casting), the appeal of the books for me (and maybe my age-group) are two-fold: first, Meyer captured the feeling of all-or-nothing love of the seventeen year old wonderfully. Pattinson has been quoted as saying that he thinks the Bella character's absolute certainty that this is what she wants is strange, given her age-I actually looked up my diary from that age (also thinking how melodramatic Bella seemed to be), and found that Meyer got it right. And that I would never want to be 17 again. The second draw of the books is the sensuality. Frankly, the mechanics of sex depicted in so many other books is old news-thanks, I know how it all works. Meyer chose the emphasize the build up, the restraint in the face of temptation that is way sexier. Having said all that, if Hardwicke can capture that feeling without making a kid's movie, she'll have repeats from older viewers that can carry the film a long way. If Stewart can provide her half of the equation (absolutely no doubts about Pattinson), that will bring women in droves, no doubt dragging along the guys (and I wouldn't fight too much, guys-you'll reap the benefit).

Autumn , October 07, 2008

TWILIGHT WINS !!!!

Twilight will be A HIT THE TWILIGHT FANS WILL MAKE IT !!!

TWILIGHT FANS WILL CONVERT THAT'S ONE THING YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT !!!

and James Bond movie ??? THAT WILL DISAPPEAR FASTER THAN TWILIGHT WILL !!!

Kalo , October 07, 2008

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Thanks tMF...I always enjoy the articles that are posted here!!! I personally think the movie will be a moderate success because with all the hype surrounding it right now, there will undoubtly be the backlash that seems to follow..I for one will be going opening night with my children, nephew, sister and mother..and then I plan on going again so I can watch it all by myself, soaking in every last bit of it...!!!

DL! , October 07, 2008

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I think the movie is going to do extremely well. Cast, director and writer, how could it not? The only thing I worry about is that it will be such a success that the DVD release will take forever. I am so going to go broke, lol

StarMT , October 07, 2008

...a definite success!

Thanks for an insightful article, Jed. Whilst I am not sure about the movie's overall appeal to the male species, I do agree that there will be some guys there with their girlfriends/wives! As for my household, my husband and son are definitely not going as it has been deemed 'painful' by them. However, my daughters, mother, sister, nieces and I are definitely going along with many friends and colleagues.

I agree with your comment that the promotional and ad strategy for the movie outside the books' fanbase will be very important given that the book fans will definitely go see the movie at least once! So Summit has to get that strategy right!

As Wolfsbane has commented, we do need some escapism from the current economic mess we are in...and what better way than to pay $8-$10 to see something that's worth $30-40 million!

Carolyn , October 07, 2008

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I'm a fan of Robert Pattinson, so I'm seeing it multiple times. Since I'm short on money, I'll have to do some couch diving for some extra change. But no matter. I'm also dragging people with me: father, friends, neighbors, you name it.

ThaliaIIVV , October 07, 2008

A Hit!

Great article, TMF!

I think TWILIGHT'S opening weekend box office will rival some of best of 2008. There is a huge fan base of readers who will want to go see this movie on the big screen. If those viewers are satisfied, not only will the film's greatness spread to new audiences via word of mouth, but the fans of the book will come back for more. Especially in November and December. What better way to avoid the crazy family during the holidays than escape to the movies? I concur with Shannon's $100 prediction when all is said and done.

kconcini , October 07, 2008

OF COURSE IT WILL BE A HUGE SUCCESS!

IF THE MOVIE SUCKS,
I WILL DIE.

BUT IT LOOKS AWESOME.

THE FINAL THEATRICAL TRAILER IS COMING OUT THIS THURSDAY!!!!

Trianna , October 07, 2008

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What better way to avoid the crazy family during the holidays than escape to the movies?

Well said, K!

Shannon McShane , October 07, 2008 | url

Twilight will be *awesome*

I can't wait for Twilight.

BellaAndEdward.com has some new stills from the movie in their gallery - they're AWESOME!

Everyone - don't forget about the FULL trailer for Twilight that's coming out Thursday!!!!!

Selena , October 07, 2008

Also.

I totally agree with that,

What better way to avoid the crazy family during the holidays than escape to the movies?

Luckily, I won't be having any hellish reunions until a bit after Thanksgiving, so when I'm there, I can just zone out and think of Twilight the whole time.

And THAT will make the day bearable.

Unless the movie isn't good. Which it better not be. It looks great. Twilight is amazing.

Selena , October 07, 2008

Correction

That context was confusing. I meant there at the end, "Unless the movie is bad. Which it better not be."

Selena , October 07, 2008

A HAPPY MEDIUM

First of all, let me say that I am one of Twilight's older fans although I wish sometimes I could have been younger when the series came out! Seriously though, I agree with some of the other posts, that it would be unfair to compare "Twilight" to the likes of huge film franchises like Harry Potter, because (1) HP's budget was much, much bigger - I believe it was about 3x that of "Twilight"; and (2) the fan base for the HP books includes younger readers who probably wouldn't graduate to "Twilight" for a few more years, translating into that many more sold copies of the books, if you will.

However, I do think, that "Twilight" is operating at a significantly distinct advantage, precisely because they were able to bring it to the screen with a much smaller budget and "controlled" (for lack of a better word, forgive me) expectations. Thus, if it manages to (and this will be at the absolute LEAST) break even, that in itself is already a wonderful achievement. I personally don't expect it to just break even, I believe it will do MUCH better than a lot of the naysayers and pundits think. The creative minds who brought "Twilight" to film fruition also are fortunate to have the support of the author, the wonderful Stephenie Meyer, who was so closely involved with the production. I also believe there will be MANY repeat viewers (I know I will probably be there ALL DAY on the 21st, only taking a break to drag my husband with me to an evening screening!), as well as many others whose curiosity may have been piqued by a mother, sister, girlfriend or teacher, and whilst very reluctant to admit a fascination with the book series or even the movie and its actors, will still go and see it anyway.

In closing, say the movie does well at the box office and pulls in twice, hypothetically, what it cost to make. $70-$80 million is already a hundred per cent return on the initial investment! In a falling economy, who wouldn't be happy with that? For me, the best part is, not having to deal with the pressure for the movie to do absolutely spectacularly in order for it to be labeled a "success." At this point, "Twilight" will march to the beat of its own drum. Anything more than that, will just be icing on the cake.

Angela , October 07, 2008

MY FRINEDS AND I CAN'T WAIT!!!

I've never finished Harry Potter so I don't know what's in the books that's not in the movies (I stopped at 4). I love Twilight and think that they will do a good job. They said that it is really close 2 the book. They have 2 make some changes 4 the movie. I've read Twilight 4 times and going 2 read it b4 it comes out. Seeing a lot of trailers on it, I think it looks good. I WANT 2 c it MORE THAN HARRY POTTER I

Alanna , October 07, 2008

Twilight Movie

Not only will my daughters and I be going to the movie but my son, son in law, husband and their male friends will too. What they're forgetting is the fact it's a VAMPIRE MOVIE. Those movies always do well unless they're B movies which still seem to do well on video for some reason. The other type of movie that is popular is a Zombie movie. Luckily this movie will have a huge group of fans seeing it along with the vampire and scifi fans. Many Moonlight fans are also looking forward to getting a vamp fix too.

Lisa Tarvin , October 07, 2008

I love you, Jed! :)

I so appreciate the way you cater to us & our Twilight/Rob Pattinson obsessions ~ seriously.

As one of the non-teenager fans (I'm a 35 year-old SAHM), you can bet that I'll be in the theater 3 times, minimum. I have a date already set with my husband first, my sister second, and my girlfriend third ~ no doubling up. I told my husband quite some time ago to go ahead & BUDGET for me going to see Twilight several times in the theater. We only see 3-5 movies a YEAR in the theater, and only Harry Potter have I seen more than once on the big-screen. I'll be breaking my own records. Why not the box office, too? If you bring it, we will come.

Paige T , October 07, 2008

Guys and Twilight

Yes, I am one of those twilight fangirls that can't hardly wait till the movie comes out, and this is what I have to say.
The whole female population of my class has read twilight (I mean this literally), but guys seem to think that it's a book for 'girls only'. The thing is, a couple of days ago I realized that many of them were eager to see the movie and get to know who the heck is Edward Cullen and why is every girl in love with him. So I'm guessing that a lot of non-readers will see it, sooner or later, out of pure curiosity.

Maria Carolina , October 07, 2008 | url

...

The whole female population of my class has read twilight (I mean this literally), but guys seem to think that it's a book for 'girls only'. The thing is, a couple of days ago I realized that many of them were eager to see the movie and get to know who the heck is Edward Cullen and why is every girl in love with him. So I'm guessing that a lot of non-readers will see it, sooner or later, out of pure curiosity.

ExActly!

Shannon McShane , October 07, 2008 | url

success??

During the filming I used to consider this movie like a little jewel enjoyed by fans, a modest project that would become sort of a cult movie...like Donnie Darko or something. But as the harry potter comparisons started, the comercial concept and the actual movie were mixed. Press makes this movie looks like patetically pretencious but it was really the buzz what transformed the original standards that the movie would follow...I hope non-readers of the book give Twilight a chance, sounds unlikely, they seem to hate it as much as we fans love it. So no, I don't expect a major box office hit..but I really don't care (except because I want the sequels so bad)..I kind of prefer it the old way..when Twilight was so intimate..In conclusion: I'll be tha happiest girl in the world if the movie satisfy ME..and I think it will!!!!

And of couse I'm seeing it multiple times with lots of different people!! i'm from mexico and we're really excited we're getting the movie exactly the same day of its release!!!

fanny , October 07, 2008

...

As always another well written and put together article. Jed this reminded me of the MTV article I came across the other day.

Twilight” was voted the number one most anticipated film by 34% of nearly 3,500 respondents. Interestingly, despite the fact that the novels are often considered strictly young-adult fiction, only 10% of respondents were 17 and younger. A much larger portion, meanwhile - 16%! - was OVER 50. (The largest chunk were between 25-49, a whopping 57%)

http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2008/08/28/twilight-voted-most-anticipated-movie-of-the-fall-on-fandango/

It just shows, what Twilight fans already know. We are not all teens. People are so quick to jump to that conclusion.

Thanks Jed!

Silver , October 07, 2008

Come on people!!

Twilight is definately going to be a hit stop bashing it. Its an awesome book and the movies going to be awesome too. You people really have no idea how it is to be an obessed fan. Now about the boys, my brothers and my boyfriend want to go see it with me and my mom and they didnt read the book. Guys will go see it to be with their ladies. It will do good and blow you all away you just see. Then all these comments will be put to shame.

Amy Twilighter , October 07, 2008

Twilight is going to be a hit!

I myself plan to watch the movie at least 3 times although I have to wait till the 22nd of January (it sucks to live in Germany -.-). I can't understand how people think it won't be a hit. The fanbase is HUGE! I know quite a few guys who want to see the movie (maybe that's because I told them that they could get almost every girl if they were a little bit like Edward xD).
Thx Jed for this nice article^^

Minh Thu , October 07, 2008 | url

helloooooo

I know that me and my friends (who are all twilight fans) are going to see the movie multiple times! and i will probably take my mom one time. and take my cousins, are also going with thier friends. Plus you have to take into consideration all the twilight fans that do not particitpate in the online activity. I see about 3-5 people a day reading and holding twilight in their hands at school. They don't check the fansites everyday but they are definetly planning to see the movie.

samantha , October 08, 2008

Boys should go see Twilight

If most of the men/boys out there are smart, they will FLOCK to the movie theater to see Twilight! Think of all the girls that will be there!!!

Edwardsgirl , October 08, 2008

..

Wow, TMF, awesome article! Hmm i will be seeing it multiple times as well. The series knocked my socks off. My first date with the movie is the midnight showing with my sisters. The second will be with my male friends (they're curious). 3rd will be with my sister again and my mother. And anytimes after that, anyone that i can grab onto and say 'Hey! Lets do this!!' hahah ^_^. And i'm sure many other people will see it because of all the excitement over Twilight. The fans of Robert Pattinson, Kellan Lutz, Peter Facinelli, and Jackson Rathbone i believe will also be there. ^_^ YAY can't wait for November 21st!!

Lirael , October 08, 2008

family and friends

Twilight will be a success no matter what, My all family is going to see this movie here in America. My family my sisters and nieces are going to see the movie in mexico, it comes out the same day that is coming out here, we are taking about the book,movie,tshirts, you name it everything about the Twilight. My friends in Asia are as excited as we are. So we can see there is a lot a people that is going to see this movie with family, friends,girlfriends etc.
definately, I am going to see it several times.

azun , October 08, 2008

...

As long as it is successful enough to continue with the next 3 movies I will be happy! Realistically you have to keep in mind that no movie will be the same as the book in every way. However, Stephenie Meyer has had a hand in the movie from day one, and if she is pleased with it I know I will be. I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will be a success. Word of mouth can do wonders for a movie (or book) and the Twilight fanbase has proven that. So fellow Twilighters please keep in mind that we are going to be the deciding factor on whether or not the other three movies are made. Spread the word!

Sarah C , October 08, 2008

Eh

I think Twilight may do well opening weekend, but I do not know if it will hold it's own. If a few fans LOATHE it, look out - tickets won't be sold. It happened with the books, why wouldn't it happen with the movie?

Twilight the movie will be a fun and entertaining couple hours of my time. But after seeing it in the theaters, I'll probably come home and read the book. That's where it all started, and I'm assuming, that's where it will end.

aubrey , October 08, 2008

A Hit Regardless of ComicCon Bubble

I do very much beleive that us as Twilight fans are in our own little world when it comes to the book, the movie, and the actors (the question when Rob was finally on Perez was, 'Who's that guy?'). However even if no one outside of the Twilight fandom saw the movie: I still think that the ticket sales will be high. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to since the actual book 'Twilight' came out that have said that they will NEED to see the movie more than once. Speaking as an 18 year old fan, I can tell you now that seeing the movie one time won't be enough. The first time (especially at the midnight showing) everyone, myself included, will be screaming. Thats just a known fact. Opening weekend, the only people that will get to see the movie are Twilight fans because they will camp out if they have to. So we dont even need to worry about the people who arent fans. I wish them good luck in trying to find a seat the first month it's out actually.
If they do find a seat then my hope as a fan is that they will be intrigued by the movie enough to read the book.

WANT MORE OF MY OPINON
GO TO MY YOUTUBE ACCT!
www.youtube.com/jaykay1615
OR AUDITION FOR A NEW TWITUBE GROUP!
www.youtube.com/twicomedy

Krystina , October 08, 2008 | url

...

I will see it first with my daughter and my friend. Next time will be with my husband - who read and loved Twilight - and grandkids. Third time, my "movie friends" and so on.......

Nancy , October 08, 2008

Praying for Sequels

What I think most people seem to be overlooking here is the fact that there are so many older harry potter fans that have needed a new fandum to latch onto & twilight has offered the perfect solution for their book to movie drought. For that simple fact the movie will definatly be success and as for men not liking the book, my father read it right after me and is just as excited about the movie, not to mention my mom is reading it now and my boyfriend really doesnt have a choice in seeing it or not because i'm going to drag him there at midnight on opening night either way! lol! So andybody living in dallas, texas can expect to see me and my entire family camped outside of the movie theater! I know i will see the movie multiple times not only because i love the books and intend to give my full support, but for the simple fact that they HAVE to make the sequels cuz i simply will not survive unless i get to see jacob black on the big screen!

Leslie , October 08, 2008

TWILIGHT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AWESOME.

If the Twilight movie sucks,

I will hate Catherine Hardwicke even more than I hate Stefen Fangmier.

Really, if Twilight is EragonMovie the Second,

I will die.

HayleyCullen , October 08, 2008

Hoping for the best

As a 26-year-old female, I can say that the group I'll be going to the theatre with will be varied: my best friend (in her 20s), my husband (in his 20s), my teenage cousin, my mother (in her 60s)... the series really crosses age AND gender lines and pulls people in. If nothing else, curiosity is going to make opening weekend huge. After that, if Summit has created a good adaptation that doesn't wander too far off course, then fans will return multiple times.

One thing I've learned about movies I love: I can watch them over and over, just to catch new things. So if Summit has created an honest, beautiful screen representation of Meyer's book, then I will definitely be seeing it more than once in theatres to give myself the chance to enjoy all the moments that make the books so engrossing and memorable.

Erynne , October 08, 2008

Thankyou!

Honestly, one of the best articles on the movie I have ever read! All so true! :]

Kadee , October 08, 2008

btw...

I for one will DEFINATELY be standing in line at the movie theater a good 12 hours before midnight on November 21st, along with about 20 of my friends...you can count on it!

Kadee , October 08, 2008

Great Article

First off, if we as a society have not learned that hollywood always changes our books when they are adapted into movies then we are setting ourselves up for a let down. I am going to go see Twilight with about 20 friends as well and I am doing it with an open mind. I know it is not going to be exactly like the book but it will be close enough to make me happy for sure based solely on the previews and clips I have seen so far. Secondly, this movie is definetly going to knock Harry Potter off the charts no questions asked. LOL.. I was at comic con and the fans are what made me get into the series, and the preview we saw was amazing. My husband and I are both huge fans and I have now got all my coworkers caught up in the Twilight series as well. On a final note I urge all those reading this to go see the movie with an open mind and don't look to much into it. Just watch the movie and enjoy the fact that it is being brought to life. Don't disect it just enjoy it.

CloeyLovesTwilight , October 08, 2008

The vampires hi Hollywood

I just can hope for the best result
I think twilight will be something big and let's say it's a phenomena since J K Rowling wrote Harry Potter and became major motion pictures
I think Twilight is a big phenomena and the movie could impact more
all I can do is only wait and see how people will love it
Cause we all love the saga, don't we?

Brenda Gracia , October 08, 2008

I'M SO EXCITED

You know, reading articles like this one are only making me more and more excited for this book series. I'm not a teenager, and I had three friends recommend these books to me before I read them. Needless to say, I was hooked after the first chapter, even before I knew who the Cullens were.

I think this movie is going to be big. Most of the newspapers in my area have said it is going to be the blockbuster of the fall. I keep hearing some of the fans bashing the casting and saying they don't even want to see it because they think it'll be screwed up, but they need to remember that this is an adaptation. I'm going into it taking it for what it is. Personally, if Stephenie Meyer is cool with the casting, and the writing and how it is turning out, that's good enough for me.

I think this movie will do big in theaters. It's had so much hype so far, and when the second trailer was previewed on Entertainment Tonight, the host said that this was the most buzzed about trailer for the fall. Yes, it won't be Harry Potter big, but there's no doubt that the fans are going to see it over and over again if they don't like it. Sure, you'll have your people who think the whole book is ruined and who will always complain that Rob Pattinson isn't the right person to play Edward Cullen, but I think it should be well received.

About boys liking Twilight, I think that they should be curious about it. Sure, the love aspect is huge, but there is action in it. I thought guys were into the whole vampire thing to some degree. The trailers look like the action could be really cool. I know the book action was cool. I think this could be great for girlfriends to bring their boyfriends to also. I think more guys need to be exposed to Twilight so we can get that squealing teenage girl image away from it. Guys can like Bella, right?

All in all, I think this movie is going to be big. Not Harry Potter big, but big.

Ally , October 08, 2008

Hit for the hype(andd more)

I think I can sort of kind of relate this to the hype that was surrounding "The Dark Knight". I have never been a Batman fan, have never read any of the comics, and had not seen any of the movies. However, with all of the Hype surrounding "The Dark Knight", I felt as though I HAD to see it, just to say that I did. I didn't nessessarily want to see it, but i can say that I actually really enjoyed it. I think that may be true for the Twilight movie, there has been soooo much hype and I think that people will go and see this movie, whether they want to or not.
But I want to, and if it doesn't stink(which I know it wont), I will be seeing at least 5 times.

Caroline , October 08, 2008

Meh.....Maybe

I think for Twilight, the movie will do well, for what the story is, and because of it's fans. I don't think it will big blockbuster smashing and will only hold the no. 1 spot for the first week, maybe the second, but will start to fall after that. It definitely won't be on any scale that Harry Potter is. The two can't even compare, seriously.

As much as I like the first book Twilight, I won't be seeing the movie in the theater. Most likely I'll wait for it to come out on dvd, which honestly, I don't think will take too long. But I'm sure it will do well enough for them to make 'New Moon'.

Me , October 08, 2008

Movie or Book?

I am a huge Twilight Fan! I only just discovered twilight a month ago. (By the way, I'm a TwilightMom, 30+.) I can't wait for the movie, but as a fan I guess I have a different attitude than most. From what I have seen so far the movie looks like it will be an awesome adaption. That being said, movies rarely come close to capturing what a book is for me.

To me the book is the book, and the movie is the movie. It's like with LOTR. I love Tolkien! I usually read LOTR at least once a year. Even though the movies couldn't capture the true scope of those books, I love the movies. They are another facet of those stories and stay true to the spirit of Tolkien. This is what I hope for Twilight.

Some things are very difficult to translate from page to screen. But from what I've seen, the director, actors, and the studio seem to be trying to stay true to Meyer's vision of her characters and that is what will mean most to me. I also have cleared my calendar for 11/21 and plan to spend the day with twilight!

Raeniece , October 09, 2008

...

From personal experience working at a movie theatre, I'm going to say that the movie will do really well. Yes, James Bond come out in Novemeber too, but I think that it will have the same kind of effect that Batman did.
If James Bond sells out everynight for many weekends, that means there will be a lot of people who won't get tickets or good enough seats. Most people still want to watch a movie, as what happened with Batman, and will go and watch other movies. That means that the majority of the shows being played around the same time at James Bond will easily sell out, or at least fill up.
So I say that Twilight will create lots of box office buzz, hopefully on its own, or at least due to the fact that many people will swarm to the theatres to watch other blockbusters.

Aly , October 09, 2008

twilight $

ok.. i have the feeling people won't just want to see the movie once. on opening weekend, sure there are going to be alot of people, but the numbers not going to decrease drastically. im planning to see the movie over again, and so are ALOT of people. critics are really underestimating the power of the fandom. it's really overwhelming. in comic con.. those were just the san diego fans. imagine worldwide. there is no doubt this movie will make some bucks. and after the trailer premieres tonight... well see.

mrs. spunk ransom , October 09, 2008

....

okay toi oka

Marie , October 10, 2008

...

okay to begin i know im planning on going once with my mom once with my aunt once with two friends once with a whole group of friends at school. and not to mention the fact that alot of twilight fans want to see how bad/good the movies going to be. I personally love mythilogical fiction and was a and still am a huge hp fan. You know that alot of HP fans like twilight because of the mythilogicalness of it.

allie , October 10, 2008

Why Compare?

Seriously, do we have to compare? Twilight is no Harry Potter, I admit, and Stephenie Meyer is no J.K Rowling. I already read both series and I say that Rowling's have a more dramatic ending. But do Twilight always have to be under Harry Potter's shadow? Both series are awesome and I love both (though I like Twilight better). Twilight should escape from being compared to Harry Potter. I see no similarity between the two bestseller series.

Michella , October 11, 2008 | url

Twilight will make Bank

Twilight is around the top selling series in the world right now? why you ask? because everyone can relate. even the boys have an interest in all the action that takes place.
my prediction for the film is that it will make 60$ million dollars on it's opening weekend.
care to go against me?
i'm very good at predicting.

Mandy , October 13, 2008

Twilight Invasion

It's famous so early:) I can't wait to see it. Robert is so hote♥

Phi , October 23, 2008

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