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tMF picks the Academy Awards!

Film Review Administrator Jeremy Welsch and film reviewer David DiMichele weigh in on the major Oscar categories.

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This year, the Oscars saw the likes of evil like they've never seen before and surprisingly, they embraced it wholeheartedly. With 8 nominations each, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood both hope to garner the Best Picture prize. This category isn’t only home to the most nominated films but also to two other dark  films with 7 nominations each: Michael Clayton and Atonement. The lone ranger of joy and happiness that rounds up the nominees for Best Picture is the little indie hit Juno that has made more money than any of the other films. There’s no such thing as a sure thing this year but there will be a fight for the top award and evidently, there will be blood spilled!

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett -- I'm Not There
Ruby Dee -- American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan -- Atonement
Amy Ryan -- Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton -- Michael Clayton

In a category best known for its oddball picks (think Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted or Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny), there is no telling who will win this year. If the category stays true to theme and since she is the Academy’s newest flavor of the decade, expect Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There to win. But if you’re going to give it to the best performance outright, you cannot ignore Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone. Her character is hateful, heartbroken and riddled with mixed intentions and Ryan plays her straight the whole way. - J.W.

Who will win: Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Who should win: Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Oscar winner: Tilda Swinton -- Michael Clayton

Best Supporting Actor:

Casey Affleck -- The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem -- No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman -- Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook -- Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson -- Michael Clayton

Low and behold the second award that is nothing less than an absolute lock. Javier Bardem has been snatching up award after award similar to his character in No Country for Old Men as he picked off human life after human life with no consideration. There’s no shaking this good person putting on a face when the cameras begin to roll that’s amongst the evilest in cinema history. Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson’s War are the only ones that stand a chance against this evil force. Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton and Hal Holbrook in a couple of minutes for Into the Wild are deserving of the nod but no shot of winning. - D.D.

Who will win: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Who should win: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Oscar winner: Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett -- Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie -- Away From Her
Marion Cotillard -- La vie en rose
Laura Linney -- The Savages
Ellen Page -- Juno

Marion Cotillard playing the hay-days and washed up days of the iconic French singer Edith Piaf is really a performance to behold. Everything from her body language to her amazing ability to lip-synch (a feat I believe is harder than actually singing) all of Piaf’s songs screams OSCAR! She is a virgin to Oscar while Julie Christie is a legend in cinema. It’s been over four decades since Christie won her award and Academy loves those "old-timers.” Laura Linney for The Savages and Cate Blanchett for another role as Queen Elizabeth are long shots. Watch out for Ellen Page in Juno as more and more people are recognizing her role, much more than any other actress on this list. - D.D.

Who will win: Julie Christie - Away From Her
Who should win: Marion Cotillard - La vie en Rose

Oscar winner: Marion Cotillard - La vie en Rose

Best Actor:

George Clooney -- Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis -- There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp -- Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen -- Eastern Promises

There is comfort to be taken in the fact that all of the nominees deserve their nominations this year. Viggo Mortenson shines in Eastern Promises. George Clooney is great in Michael Clayton, even if it seems like George Clooney without the alcoholic fun of an Ocean's shoot. And I would love to see Johnny Depp win his first Academy Award for the film that seems to embody is career’s work. Sadly, all of these fine performances exist only to warm the shadow cast by Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood. This is the performance of a lifetime in the film of the decade. Day Lewis disappears into the role of oilman Daniel Plainview and reemerges as one of the greediest, vile, yet respectable characters on film. - J.W.

Who will win: Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Who should win: Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Oscar winner: Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Christopher Hampton -- Atonement
Sarah Polley -- Away From Her
Ronald Harwood -- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel and Ethan Coen -- No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson -- There Will Be Blood

Cormac McCarthy had a vision in his book and that vision I thought could never make its way to the screen. Thanks to the Coen brothers they make the impossible possible, like they always do. The bleak and dry landscapes that ran wild in our minds while reading McCarthy’s novel never look more beautiful or, at the same time, as frightening as they do in the film. Coen’s don’t sugarcoat anything and stay true and faithful to the novel; especially the ending that had a lot of people scratching their heads. The other possibility can be Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of a novel that isn’t nearly as entertaining as the film version. He only dabbles a little bit with information from the book Oil! while the Coen’s adapt every word and motion in McCarthy’s groundbreaking novel. - D.D.

Who will win: Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Who should win: Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Oscar winner: Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Best Original Screenplay:

Diablo Cody -- Juno
Nancy Oliver -- Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy -- Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco, Jan Pinkava -- Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins -- The Savages

This category both saddens and delights me, both to no end. On one hand you have a surprise nomination by one of the most underrated directors in the business today in Brad Bird for Ratatouille. On the other hand you have a cheap, mean, pop culture infused mess that’s only success is tricking everyone into thinking it is far better than it actually is. I am of course speaking of Diablo Cody’s script for Juno. Sadly she will win for pulling the wool over on everyone, but Brad Bird deserves it because he has now added writer to his list of excellent accomplishments. - J.W.

Who will win: Diablo Cody - Juno
Who should win: Brad Bird - Ratatouille

Oscar winner: Diablo Cody - Juno

Best Director:

Julian Schnabel -- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman -- Juno
Tony Gilroy -- Michael Clayton
Joel and Ethan Coen -- No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson -- There Will Be Blood

It is very fitting that in a year marked by the debate between which of these films are better, this category really only has two possible outcomes – the Coen brothers for No Country for Old Men or Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. Both seem to have risen on the same path to greatness and both arriving at prominence on the same year. I love both films, but there is a classic sensibility to the masterpiece that is There Will Be Blood. It is a deeply American movie and PTA gets every nuance right, even down to the ending where he channeled one of his idols, Kubrick, as good or better than Kubrick could have done himself. - J.W.

Who will win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Who should win: Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Oscar winner: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Best Picture:

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

This new millennium hasn’t seen the likes of a romantic drama of any kind win the top prize. It’s long overdue (Titanic in 1997 was the last winner). The Academy falls head over heels for a picture like Atonement because it has pretty much everything they love to see in a movie; a beautiful looking period piece with lavish costume, that smothers itself with passionate loving (Shakespeare in Love, a romantic comedy period piece, beat Saving Private Ryan in 1998). The Departed an angry, bloody, violent crime drama won this award last year so that might wipe out the possibilities for either No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood to claim the top prize. This year’s Little Miss Sunshine is Juno but don’t expect this to win because Academy loves to adorn these little movies with nominees and such but very rarely, if ever, they go the distance to awarding them. So that leaves the retro-throwback thriller Michael Clayton which is gaining more and more speed as we speak. It’s a smart film about an issue that requires your every second of attention, maybe a little too much. Let's not forget to mention it has gotten shut out of every award it has been nominated for throughout award season.

I’m just going to come out and say it: No film this year stays with you as long as No Country for Old Men does. Having that at their side can be as good as gold. It’s also the scariest, most accomplished, beautifully constructed, and thought provoking film of the year. The Coen brothers create a simple tale of good and evil which gets turned into a complex blood chilling movie that resonates and depicts our society today. - D.D.

Who will win: Atonement
Who should win: No Country for Old Men

Oscar winner: No Country for Old Men

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Comments (12)

nice!@!!!

this is sweet guys!!! great writing Jeremy...this is very interesting to read and I'm glad that we have two people doing the preditions rather than only one...adds some spice!!! cxan't wait until sunday night!!!

dimichele305 , February 22, 2008

Great article guys!

What an insightful article! In 2 days time we'll see the winners, but reading this post, made me wonder...

I really felt PT Anderson's TWBB is the best of the year, but yeah No Country is getting the nods from almost all the award-giving bodies, saved the BAFTA!

jedmed , February 22, 2008

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Excellent piece. I pretty much agree with most of your "will" as well as "should" choices. I won't comment on all of them but I am surprised at your Best Picture choices.

I was actually lucky enough to see all five films at the Toronto Film Festival, before there was any Oscar buzz or chance to be influenced by other awards or critics or box office.

I can pick each of those five films and list reasons why they will or won't win (EW has an excellent feature doing just that). And I would list the same reasons as you did for Atonement. I simply don't believe that it was satisfying enough to Academy voters to qualify as the sweeping romantic epic it appeared to be. For one thing, it's really not a love story at all. It's about deception more than anything else and the consequences of not telling the truth. It's also been criticized somewhat for straying from the novel more than some had wanted. I loved it but I just don't see it taking the award.

Juno was my Top Pick from Toronto and I loved it but I think you're correct that the Academy will recognize this type of film with nominations but is afraid to award it the big one over heavy dramas.

Michael Clayton was interesting to me but I didn't even pick it as one of my Top 5 from Toronto. It's getting all the love because Hollywood worships Clooney but I don't think it deserves the acclaim.

That bring us to There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men, which have been taking most of the awards until now and are the odds-on favorites everywhere. To me it's a toss-up.

So...what will win? No Country For Old Men. Why? Believe it or not, I think it will win because not enough voters saw There Will Be Blood. Just that simple. They didn't see it.

What should win? Well, I guess I just answered that. I thought There Will Be Blood was a far better experience than No Country For Old Men. That's the one which has stayed with me. It just wasn't seen by enough Academy voters.

larry-411 , February 22, 2008 | url

thanks Larry!

Larry, you did an amazing analysis of the films and how they will be seen by the voters. I also love Juno and its been growing on me since I saw it a couple of weeks ago. Ellen Page is such a terrific actress. I felt that her role in Hard Candy should have been noticed. She is soo good in both drama and comedy, I can't think of any young actress who can match that! Even Roger Ebert picked Juno as his #1.

I have seen all of the best picture nominees too, but unlike you, I have seen and read a lot of reviews already, and while it made me get more interested in the movies, I still find No Country to be over-rated. I find Blood more absorbing and Lewis is such a great actor!

jed , February 22, 2008

I agree

Thanks so much Jed. I'm in complete agreement with your points about these three films. When I saw Juno it was a just another little indie at Toronto that had nothing going for it other than festival buzz, a nice ensemble cast, and an admired director. It got a standing ovation -- very rare for festivals -- and was the runnerup to Eastern Promises as the audience favorite out of 352 films. What came later was a Juno backlash -- it was touted so highly that as critics discovered it they found it more exciting to bash it than jump on the bandwagon. But critics don't buy movie tickets. People do. And that's why this is the most commercially successful platform release since My Big Fat Greek Wedding in 2002.

And for anyone who doesn't think Ellen Page can act, hold your tongue until you see An American Crime. You heard it here first. That's all I have to say about that.

I also think No Country is overrated. One reason is because Hollywood loves the Coen brothers. And they are equally negative towards Paul Thomas Anderson. And I think that has a lot to do with the balance between the two.

larry-411 , February 22, 2008 | url

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Thanks David for your help with this article. I think it turned out great.

I will, however, debate your pick for Best Picture. There is no movie this year or this decade that was better than There Will Be Blood. And I don't think No Country is overrated, by any means - it just came out in the wrong year to be the best picture.

Juno, on the other hand, I hate more and more as each day passes. I thought Ellen Page was awful and grating. She made me not like this movie more than I do now.

Jeremy , February 22, 2008

Atonement?

I wonder its chances to win... When was the last time a film without a Best Director nomination won Best Picture?

danielbruehlfan , February 22, 2008 | url

Oh my Juno!

Hey Jeremy! I dunno why you seem to dislike Ellen

Anyway, perhaps its because of her dry sense of humnour, as Jan also mentioned to me the other day... I watched it again last night, to see if I would feel the same, though I still find this movie to be quite entertaining, some sort of annoyance has begun to seep in on how I see Ms. Page. Maybe because I tend to associate her in Hard Candy and her castrating the poor poor guy (he's in Evening & Little Children) yes, Patrick Wilson!

jed , February 23, 2008

American Crime

Larry, yes, I heard of this movie...I think in your blog even before I read info about it somewhere else.

jed , February 23, 2008

yea

hey, our WHO SHOULD wins are very good!!!! haha it was a great night last night...especially John Stewart...

dimichele305 , February 25, 2008

yes!

Hi David! Yes, it was a fun Oscar night! I wonder who is riding in that plane? I was soooo surpised when Marion won and it's awesome she did it! though it would have been a double whammy if both Lewis and Julie won, it's both their second Oscars...

jed , February 25, 2008

yikes...

Well, we didn't do horrible. I am OK with the acting Oscar's. I still like Amy Ryan, but Tilda Swinton's acceptance speech made it worth the win.

Jeremy , February 25, 2008

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